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Scenarica's avatar

The cost framing is the whole essay, and it's worth making it exact: contrarianism is a costly signal, and a signal only carries information if it's expensive to fake. Hitchens's break was informative because it was ruinous. he lost the publication and the tribe, and refused the cheaper exit to the side that would have paid him. The price was the proof.

The cargo cult did something subtler than strip the cost out. They inverted it. Breaking with your tribe went from the thing that cost you everything to the thing the audience pays you for. The abandonment became the product. And once defection is rewarded rather than punished, the same gesture flips sign: "I broke with my side" stops being evidence of conviction and becomes evidence of market fit.

Which leaves a clean test that survives any politics. Don't ask whether a contrarian broke with their tribe. Ask whether the position cost them or paid them. Hitchens priced his conviction in losses. The performers price theirs in subscribers. Same posture, opposite sign on the signal, and the sign is the only part that ever carried information.

Scott Mowbray's avatar

I saw Hitch on his final tour, very ill, still brilliant, he barely made it to the podium for the debate, then resoundingly crushed an evangelical opponent whom Hitch was friendly with. This was in Birmingham, Alabama. It was inspiring—and he inspired an evangelical friend of mine who was completely opposed to Hitch's atheism. Re: Harris. He hasn't entirely abandoned politics for philosophy, but he is stuck in an anti-Islamist rut that I think lacks nuance and makes his positions sound like cant rather than thoughftul analysis.

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