The Dictators’ Miscalculation: How Undermining American Democracy Created Their Worst Nightmare
On Minneapolis, mass strikes, and why authoritarian regimes are watching American resistance with terror
In October I asked: What time is it?
Not “are we in crisis?” Obviously we are. Not “will democracy survive?” It depends.
The question was: are we in 1923, when resistance still seems optional? 1930, when the choice still matters? Or 1933, when consolidation is complete?
I argued we were in 1930. The moment when recognizing what time it is becomes essential to determining what time it becomes.
Three months later, I have an answer.
And Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are not going to like it.
Xi and Putin spent years undermining American democracy. Not as a side project or opportunistic meddling. But as their core geostrategic priority.
They wanted a paralyzed America. Divided, ineffective, consumed by internal conflict. Too fractured to project power globally. Too dysfunctional to coordinate democratic alliances. Too distracted by domestic chaos to constrain authoritarian expansion.
They got Trump.
And they found more than willing partners. Not assets they themselves developed, but a domestic oligarchic class that has found some degree of convergent interests with these foreign menaces to the free peoples of the world. America’s Gilded Age 2.0 has produced its own anti-democratic movement: a cohort of tech accelerationists, right-wing reactionaries from Silicon Valley. Thiel, Musk, Andreessen—not Russian puppets, but American oligarchs who share with Putin and Xi a common vision: a world where capital operates free from democratic constraint.
A convenient evolution towards compatible goals. At least for now. There is no honor among thieves, after all.
But these enterprising state-breakers are more pernicious than the economic royalists whose hatred Franklin Roosevelt welcomed. Those were merely national predators. These ones have somewhat more global ambitions. They would rather pay protection money to a Putin or a Xi Jinping—tributes to operate their transnational empires—than suffer the indignity of democratic regulation by the popular will of uppity citizens of lower vibrations. How dare these human resources deign to suggest they are qualified to opine on matters of national policy?
This is the psychology driving the convergence. Not only ideology or strategy. Also wounded pride. The democratic expectation that billionaires answer to the same laws as everyone else is, to them, an intolerable insult. Autocrats don’t impose such indignities. Autocrats can be paid off. Autocrats understand hierarchy.
And so the project isn’t just capturing America. It’s dismantling democratic constraint everywhere.
Even now, Musk is focused on destabilizing British democracy. One might think a man with his responsibilities—running the world’s most valuable automaker, advising the president, managing a social media platform—would have his hands full. But the itch to topple a few more democracies apparently cannot be scratched by American politics alone.
Through X, he has repeatedly attacked Prime Minister Keir Starmer, called for his imprisonment, and promoted the idea that Britain needs “liberation” from its elected government. He has amplified far-right figures like Tommy Robinson and pressured Reform UK leadership while signaling interest in funding the hard-right party. During periods of civil unrest, he framed the UK as heading toward “civil war”—language officials say has inflamed far-right riots.
Starmer has said Musk’s “lies and misinformation” are undermining British democracy. Academic analysts have described his actions as “foreign interference” aimed at destabilizing the British government. One imagines Musk finds this characterization unfair. He’s simply offering the British people the gift of his wisdom. That they didn’t ask for it is beside the point. That their elected officials object is proof they need replacing.
This is the oligarch project made visible. Not content with capturing American institutions, they’re exporting the model. A platform with 200 million followers makes a useful battering ram against any democracy that has the temerity to regulate billionaires.
The authoritarians found allies. The allies have global ambitions. And they’re acting on them in real-time, confident that no one can stop them.
And then something happened that none of them anticipated.
On January 7, ICE agent Jonathan Ross shot and killed Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. A poet. A mother of three. Shot while observing a federal operation in her neighborhood with her wife.
One week later, another federal agent shot a Venezuelan immigrant in the leg.
The regime’s response was instructive. Call Good a “domestic terrorist.” Fabricate claims about officer injuries. Deploy more federal forces. Threaten Insurrection Act. Post AI memes showing Trump dumping sewage on protesters. The full toolkit of a government that has confused domination with governance.
Minneapolis’s response was more instructive still. Over 1000 marchers in the streets. Vandalism of hotels housing federal agents. Mayor calling federal presence an “occupying force.” A federal judge ruled that ICE cannot detain or tear-gas peaceful protesters. Community organizations, unions, and faith leaders are calling for a statewide general strike on January 23: “no work, no school, no shopping.”
And when pardoned January 6 rioter Jake Lang tried to stage a pro-ICE rally at City Hall? Hundreds of counterprotesters chased him from the area, pelting him with snowballs in sub-zero temperatures.
Xi and Putin are watching this. So is Tehran. So is every authoritarian regime trying to consolidate power while maintaining the fiction of popular support.
And they’re terrified.
It’s too early to know what Minneapolis means. Maybe it’s the beginning of something. Maybe it’s a local flare that burns out. But consider what’s being tested there, in real-time, against an actual consolidating regime.
Courts constraining federal agents. Protests are making the occupation costly. Strike threats are forcing the regime to calculate whether this is sustainable. Communities organizing faster than provocateurs can mobilize—Jake Lang couldn’t hold a rally in a city that just learned what collective action feels like. Unions, small businesses, and faith communities are finding common cause around shared rejection of federal overreach. A mayor calling federal forces an “occupying army” because his constituents made silence impossible.
None of this guarantees anything. Movements fail. Coalitions fracture. Regimes adapt. But something is being learned in Minneapolis, and not just by the people in the streets. Dissidents and state security worldwide study the same footage—one group learning tactics, the other learning what to fear.
If this works—and that’s still an if—it becomes a model. If it fails, the failure itself teaches something. Either way, the experiment is being conducted in public, and the whole world is taking notes.
A divided America arguing over pronouns and Hunter Biden’s laptop? Xi can work with that. Putin can work with that. Tehran can work with that. A fractured empire, tearing itself apart over culture war trivia, is precisely what they ordered.
An America learning how to organize general strikes, chase federal forces from cities, coordinate legal resistance with mass action, and force regime accountability? That’s a different problem entirely. That’s an existential threat to every authoritarian regime on Earth.
Consider the current geopolitical situation. Iran faces protests over inflation, demographic constraints, and economic pressures, with reported fatalities over a week of unrest. The mullahs are watching Minneapolis and recognizing the pattern: popular resistance that can’t be fully suppressed without catastrophic costs. Unpleasant viewing.
BRICS has begun military coordination because economic cooperation isn’t enough. They need to strengthen their security posture because their legitimacy is weak. But BRICS cohesion is constrained by China-India rivalry and Russia’s isolation. Authoritarians, it turns out, have trouble trusting each other. Who could have predicted?
China faces demographic collapse, an economic slowdown, the aftermath of zero-COVID, and growing public frustration. What happens when Chinese citizens see Americans successfully resist federal overreach through mass strikes? The CCP would prefer they didn’t find out.
Russia sits isolated, dependent on North Korea and Iran, stuck with Putin’s “conservative corrosion” preventing strategic adaptation. What happens when Russians see Americans chase federal agents from cities? Best not to dwell on it.
The technology spreads whether they like it or not. Hong Kong protesters already used American civil rights tactics. Iranian protesters study color revolutions. Russian dissidents watch everything.
Minneapolis isn’t just resisting Trump. It’s creating the blueprint for dismantling every authoritarian regime on Earth.
In October, I described Putin’s paralysis. How “conservative corrosion” from overstaying power made him too rigid to take the free strategic move of accepting Trump’s advances and reintegrating with the West to undermine it from within.
I described Trump’s inability to build like Orbán. How performing dominance prevents institutional consolidation. How narcissistic hierarchy can’t create stable partnerships because it requires perpetual displays of subordination rather than functional cooperation.
I described the authoritarian coordination problem. How can they trust each other? Trust requires stability, and a narcissistic hierarchy produces only chaos.
Democratic resilience through pluralistic mess was the thesis. Minneapolis is the proof.
Watch what’s happening right now. Trump has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over building renovation costs. Called him “corrupt or incompetent,” a “numbskull,” a “dumb guy,” an “obvious Trump hater.” Threatened to fire him. The Justice Department is investigating Powell's testimony before Congress. Subtle it is not.
This is unprecedented political interference with Fed independence. An authoritarian move aimed at intimidating the central bank into rate cuts that serve Trump’s political interests rather than economic stability.
And yet Powell’s still there. Trump claims “no plan to fire him at this time.” Why the hesitation? Because removing Powell would trigger market panic, Senate pushback, and institutional resistance. Because the Supreme Court is hearing a case about whether the president can fire Fed governors. Because even Trump’s allies warn that attacking Fed independence destabilizes the economy. Because it turns out you can threaten institutions all you want, but actually dismantling them has consequences.
Or look at JPMorgan Chase. Trump threatens to sue the bank “in the next two weeks” for closing his accounts after January 6. Claims it’s politically motivated “debanking.” Simultaneously proposes capping credit card interest rates at 10 percent and backing legislation to cut bank fee revenue. The man contains multitudes, all of them incoherent.
This is pure populist performance. Threatening lawsuits, attacking banks, and proposing caps that would reduce credit availability, according to industry groups. But it’s not institutional consolidation. It’s not systematically capturing regulatory agencies and courts, as Orbán did in Hungary. Orbán is a craftsman. Trump is a man with a hammer who thinks everything is a nail and also a personal enemy.
It’s performing dominance while institutions resist. It’s threatening Powell while being constrained from firing him. It’s suing JPMorgan while banks warn that his credit proposals would backfire. It’s waging unconstitutional war in Venezuela while courts block ICE agents in Minneapolis. Sound and fury, signifying—well, not nothing, but less than he’d like.
Trump can violate norms. He can open criminal investigations into Fed chairs. He can threaten banks and propose populist caps. He can post AI sewage memes about protesters. What he can’t do is make any of it stick.
He can’t build durable structures. Can’t consolidate like Orbán. Can’t make institutions reliably subordinate. Can’t prevent courts from checking power when backed by mobilization. The authoritarian playbook requires patience and craft. Trump has neither.
Meanwhile, in Minneapolis, communities organize general strikes. Courts rule ICE can’t detain peaceful protesters. Mayors call federal forces occupying armies. Unions and faith leaders coordinate resistance. Far-right provocateurs get chased from cities.
Democratic resilience through pluralistic mess. Courts, communities, unions, faith leaders, small businesses, protesters, judges—all throwing grit in the regime’s gears. Each acts independently but creates a collective effect. Each makes authoritarianism more expensive, more uncertain, more fragile.
This is what Xi and Putin didn’t expect. They undermined American democracy to weaken U.S. global influence. What they created instead: the most powerful demonstration of democratic resistance techniques in a generation. Against a would-be authoritarian. In real-time. Broadcast globally. Refining tactics through actual confrontation.
The Minneapolis general strike call—”no work, no school, no shopping”—is the escalation that determines whether this remains local resistance or becomes a template for a national response.
If it succeeds, Mass economic pressure forces the regime to calculate. General strikes work in modern America. Other cities have a model. The majority recognizes itself and acts collectively. Authoritarians everywhere start sleeping worse.
If it fails or fizzles, the regime claims victory. Federal forces consolidate position. Resistance retreats to legal challenges without mass backing. The usual story.
But here’s what Xi and Putin understand that American optimists don’t: even failed resistance attempts teach tactics. Even suppressed protests demonstrate vulnerabilities. Even localized strikes show the technology works. You can’t unlearn what Minneapolis has already taught.
Minneapolis has already accomplished something irreversible: proven that Americans will resist federal overreach with mass action when pushed. That communities will organize. That coalitions will form. That courts will check power when backed by popular mobilization.
And every authoritarian regime watching knows: if Americans can do this against their own government, their citizens can do it too.
My October piece described Putin’s psychological rigidity. Trump’s narcissistic performance. The authoritarian international is unable to coordinate because its pathologies prevent functional cooperation. Three months later, the diagnosis holds.
Putin still can’t adapt. Russia is isolated, dependent on failing partners, and unable to capitalize on American chaos because conservative corrosion prevents it from taking on strategic risk. The free move—accepting Trump’s advances, reintegrating with the West to undermine it from within—sits on the table untaken. He’s too old and too paranoid to reach for it.
Trump still can’t consolidate. Opening criminal investigations into Powell while being constrained from firing him. Threatening JPMorgan while proposing credit caps that would backfire. Threatening to invade Greenland while Minneapolis organizes a general strike. Threatening the Insurrection Act while courts block federal agents. Each performance reveals the same limitation: he can’t build durable structures that outlast his personal attention. Everything requires his direct involvement. Everything depends on the daily tantrum.
BRICS coordination is still failing. Military exercises because legitimacy is weak. But China-India rivalry and Russia’s isolation prevent coherent action. They can signal strength but can’t build reliable partnerships. Authoritarians make poor allies. Who knew.
Meanwhile, the democratic forces show a different pattern. Seven million at the protests in October, as I documented. Now over a thousand marchers in Minneapolis in January. A general strike is being organized across unions, communities, and faith leaders. Courts are blocking federal overreach. Communities chasing provocateurs from cities. Powell is still chairing the Fed despite a criminal investigation. Banks are resisting debanking pressure despite presidential threats. Mobilization is growing, not shrinking.
Authoritarian strength versus democratic resilience. Concentrated will versus distributed agency. Clarity of command versus a pluralistic mess that throws grit in every gear. Turns out the mess is a feature, not a bug.
In October, I wrote: It’s 1930. Not too late for hope. Not early enough for complacency. The exact moment when recognizing what time it is becomes a form of resistance.
Three months later: Still 1930. But now we know which direction it’s moving. And it’s not the direction they expected.
The authoritarians revealed their blunder. They undermined American democracy to weaken us globally. They created the conditions for Americans to learn resistance tactics against actual authoritarian consolidation. In real-time. Broadcast globally. Refined through direct confrontation. Oops.
Minneapolis isn’t the end. It’s the beginning. The tactics of democratic resistance—tested against Trump, refined through actual struggle—now spread.
To every American city where federal overreach threatens communities. To every authoritarian regime where citizens watch Americans successfully resist. To every BRICS nation where legitimacy is weak and populations are restless.
This is Xi and Putin’s strategic blunder. They wanted to weaken America by undermining democracy. They created the demonstration project for dismantling authoritarian regimes everywhere. History has a sense of humor.
What happens in Minneapolis matters globally. Not just for American democracy—though that’s essential. But for every authoritarian regime, watching to see whether mass economic resistance works in a modern economy. Whether communities can organize general strikes. Whether coalitions can force regime calculation through collective action.
If Minneapolis succeeds, every city with federal overreach has a model. Every authoritarian regime has a vulnerability exposed. Every population watching knows resistance works. The technology transfers whether anyone wants it to or not.
If Minneapolis fails: Authoritarians claim vindication. But they’ve already seen Americans try. Already watched communities organize. Already witnessed resistance emerge. You can’t unsee that.
Either way, the blunder is complete. Xi and Putin undermined American democracy to weaken U.S. global influence. Instead, they taught the world what organized resistance looks like against a consolidating regime—tested in real confrontation, broadcast to every nation they’re part of.
And now that technology—mass strikes, coalition building, economic pressure, legal resistance, community organization—threatens every authoritarian government on Earth. The genie doesn’t go back in the bottle.
The authoritarian international is fragile. Built on narcissism, maintained through dominance, held together by shared opposition rather than functional cooperation. A coalition of men who can’t trust anyone, trying to trust each other. Good luck with that.
Putin can’t trust Trump’s deals. Trump can’t build like Orbán. BRICS can’t coordinate effectively. Iran faces protests it can’t fully suppress. China faces demographic collapse and economic headwinds. Russia faces isolation from the West it needs but can’t trust. Each showing same vulnerability: authoritarian psychology prevents both internal adaptation and external coordination. The pathology that makes them dangerous also makes them brittle.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis demonstrates democratic resilience. Messy, frustrating, slow, contradictory—yes. But capable of coordinating across sectors, building coalitions that surprise elites, imposing real costs through economic action, and forcing institutional accountability through combined legal and popular pressure. Capable of creating unpredictability that prevents authoritarian consolidation. Capable of being more trouble than they’re worth.
Trump opens criminal investigations into Powell. Powell remains Fed chair. Trump threatens JPMorgan. Banks resist debanking pressure. Trump posts AI sewage memes. Minneapolis organizes a general strike. Trump threatens the Insurrection Act. Courts block ICE agents. The pattern repeats: dominance displays met with distributed resistance. Each cycle teaches both sides what works and what doesn’t.
This is what Xi and Putin didn’t anticipate. They thought undermining democracy would make America weak. They made America learn how to fight back. And that lesson spreads everywhere their influence reaches.
In October, I wrote: “The wire still holds because pluralism still throws grit in the gears—courts, campuses, culture, the street. The center can be held. The ground hasn’t been reached.”
Minneapolis proves this. Courts are blocking federal agents. Communities organizing strikes. Coalitions forming. Resistance growing. Powell is still chairing despite a criminal investigation. Banks are resisting despite threats. Institutions are damaged but fighting. The wire was frayed but intact.
The authoritarian project is real and advanced. Make no mistake about that. But the democratic defense is messy and alive. And now we know something we didn’t know before: The mess is the strength. Pluralism is the weapon. The distributed agency is what prevents authoritarian coordination.
Xi and Putin amplified American division to weaken us. They found allies in a domestic oligarch class with shared interests—Gilded Age plutocrats who want democracy gone for their own reasons, who would rather pay tribute to autocrats than suffer the indignity of accountability to their lessers. Together, they expected paralysis. A nation too divided to resist, too confused to organize, too demoralized to fight.
Instead, they created the laboratory where Americans learn resistance. That’s the strategic blunder. That’s why they’re terrified. That’s what time it is now.
The flood still rises. The wire still holds. And somewhere in the noise, democracy still breathes.
Not just in America. In Minneapolis specifically. Where the world is watching and learning. Where dissidents and state security study the same footage—one group taking notes on tactics, the other on what to fear.
While authoritarian regimes—fragile, unable to coordinate, psychologically rigid, built on narcissism—watch and understand: The system they undermined may collapse. Or it may not. But either way, their citizens are watching too. And those citizens are starting to ask uncomfortable questions about what’s possible.
May love carry us home. Not as sentiment, but as commitment. To remain conscious. To maintain meaning. To hold the wire. To show every authoritarian regime on Earth what its citizens might do if given half a chance.
That’s what time it is. The moment when dictators realize undermining American democracy was the worst strategic decision they ever made.
In the 60's student unrest was the vanguard for protestihg against the VietnamWar which was not taken seriously until the mainstream public became shocked by the killing of students at Ohio State or when the police became the rioters at the Chicago '68 Democratic Convention(to name only two events).
The Milgram study on people underestimating compliance to authority is a valuable lesson in how difficult it is to go against authority while the Zambardo experiment speaks to how vicious people can become once given free reign in exercising their authority. Both results of these studies bearing out with ICE agents and the passivity of Congress and the main press.
Singling out students or immigrants may work on keeping the rest of the bystander public passive or compliant, but once you start killing or maiming bystanders, that's when people begin to wake up and start to become involved .
"The flood still rises. The wire still holds. And somewhere in the noise, democracy still breathes." Perfect, Mike. Once again, you have managed to capture the essence of this moment in American political history. Keep up the good work!