C'mon, now. First two months, job adds have been lower then expectations, meanwhile we're looking at massive government cuts, tariffs that will raise prices (and inflation) and lead to people buying less, the ramp down of federal investment in research makes for a less interesting investment climate, import substitution is a really stupid economic policy, markets-don't-like-massive-uncertainty is Investing 101. Econ and business policy by revenge is even worse. Add to that a fairly large class of individual investors concerned about their SS and Medicare ; fuck with that and a lot of money comes out of the market and further curtailments to retail.
Ask bourbon country how it's taking the disappearance of product from Canadian shelves, or the tourist industry how it's liking the absence of Snowbirds and Canadian college students coming down for spring break.
You are also very much onto something with SS and Medicare but not just the people who have it. Their children as well who are, or should be, considering what happens if they have to suddenly help their parents' make up the difference.
"The current market correction reveals something profound about human economic behavior: we don't just respond to what is happening; we respond to what we think is about to happen, which in turn shapes what happens. This recursive loop between perception and reality, between narrative and outcome, is the space where animal spirits roam."
I wonder if the dystopia that Trump envisions the U.S. to be is a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Make America Great Again" assumes that America is no longer great despite the data and evidence saying otherwise. This coincides with your previous article on cognitive dissonance where anxiety is created from attempting to hold two competing perceptions resulting in a frantic search for relief by grasping for simple, often illogical "animal spirit" solutions.
Markets and economics work based on a perceived trust in a stable shared reality. Destroy that illusion of stability and the rules of logic transform into vapor. Economist Paul Krugman had an article discussing how excuses for the dissonance between promises and reality are creating anxiety and undermining the markets.
There has been much discussion on Trump's cognitive decline recently and as his capacity for logical thought diminishes, the anxiety in the marketplace increases. Yes, we were warned...
Trump's greatest legacy seems to be poisoned trust. He has poisoned trust with our allies. Trust with Americans, and trust between Americans. He is even demanding that other institutions (e.g. Columbia) play a part in his assault and, by extension, poisoning the relationship they have with everyone else.
Hi I wanted to share a project of mine that recently came to fruition—The Jacksons’ Debate, a speculative fiction novella published under THRIVE Publishing's initiative, Can Fiction Help Us Thrive
Considering the folks in charge of things and their actions, I think the high-information institutional investors and insiders who hold the majority of US securities are just playing it safe.
For sure. I've been reading like crazy over the last couple of weeks, piecing together a story of alienated tech leaders seeking to create libertarian, tech-administered, autocractic, cotporate states. The animal spirits are surely riding them but I don't think they understand that. Their confidence in rationality and efficiency is a gap in their techie armor. The animal spirits have their own wild and mysterious logic. There is opportunity here for collective magic.
Rational expectations - something I was taught many years ago in my economics degree. I wonder if it's taught today? Or is it only 'applied' economics now?
C'mon, now. First two months, job adds have been lower then expectations, meanwhile we're looking at massive government cuts, tariffs that will raise prices (and inflation) and lead to people buying less, the ramp down of federal investment in research makes for a less interesting investment climate, import substitution is a really stupid economic policy, markets-don't-like-massive-uncertainty is Investing 101. Econ and business policy by revenge is even worse. Add to that a fairly large class of individual investors concerned about their SS and Medicare ; fuck with that and a lot of money comes out of the market and further curtailments to retail.
Ask bourbon country how it's taking the disappearance of product from Canadian shelves, or the tourist industry how it's liking the absence of Snowbirds and Canadian college students coming down for spring break.
You are also very much onto something with SS and Medicare but not just the people who have it. Their children as well who are, or should be, considering what happens if they have to suddenly help their parents' make up the difference.
In several states, children are required by law to care for indigent parents.
Yeah. And even if they aren't everyone of character will still try. The sandwich generation will get flattened.
The economy was just fine when the boy king and his dotard keeper took over. What is there in any of this to like, Mike?
"The current market correction reveals something profound about human economic behavior: we don't just respond to what is happening; we respond to what we think is about to happen, which in turn shapes what happens. This recursive loop between perception and reality, between narrative and outcome, is the space where animal spirits roam."
I wonder if the dystopia that Trump envisions the U.S. to be is a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Make America Great Again" assumes that America is no longer great despite the data and evidence saying otherwise. This coincides with your previous article on cognitive dissonance where anxiety is created from attempting to hold two competing perceptions resulting in a frantic search for relief by grasping for simple, often illogical "animal spirit" solutions.
Markets and economics work based on a perceived trust in a stable shared reality. Destroy that illusion of stability and the rules of logic transform into vapor. Economist Paul Krugman had an article discussing how excuses for the dissonance between promises and reality are creating anxiety and undermining the markets.
There has been much discussion on Trump's cognitive decline recently and as his capacity for logical thought diminishes, the anxiety in the marketplace increases. Yes, we were warned...
Trump's greatest legacy seems to be poisoned trust. He has poisoned trust with our allies. Trust with Americans, and trust between Americans. He is even demanding that other institutions (e.g. Columbia) play a part in his assault and, by extension, poisoning the relationship they have with everyone else.
Yes, he cannot "make us great" unless we no longer are great. Chaos is a feature, not a flaw...
Hi I wanted to share a project of mine that recently came to fruition—The Jacksons’ Debate, a speculative fiction novella published under THRIVE Publishing's initiative, Can Fiction Help Us Thrive
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/228994545-the-jacksons-debateMarqv
Considering the folks in charge of things and their actions, I think the high-information institutional investors and insiders who hold the majority of US securities are just playing it safe.
For sure. I've been reading like crazy over the last couple of weeks, piecing together a story of alienated tech leaders seeking to create libertarian, tech-administered, autocractic, cotporate states. The animal spirits are surely riding them but I don't think they understand that. Their confidence in rationality and efficiency is a gap in their techie armor. The animal spirits have their own wild and mysterious logic. There is opportunity here for collective magic.
Rational expectations - something I was taught many years ago in my economics degree. I wonder if it's taught today? Or is it only 'applied' economics now?
the economy going through major changes reminds me of earthquakes