Meanwhile the Global North is looking at events and concluding that since USAian voters can't be trusted to have the bare minimum good sense not to elect as head of state and head of government (a blend which is utterly insane and one of the many, many roots of why the US system is so thoroughly fucked up) a lying rapist who betrays nearly every ally his country ever ostensibly had (and further have shown that they can't or won't force their elected representatives to remove him as soon as the betrayals began), while China, for all its multitudinous faults, is at the least good to its word in the trade realm (or at least better than the US has proven itself to be), they'd all rather make deals with China than the country across our southern border. So China wins with both the Global North and the Global South.
I mean, that you would be confused into thinking China is a benevolent actor here because their "economically reliable" is certainly part of the problem I'm observing. This is a regime that regularly disappears dissidents, harvests the organs of criminals against their will, and is actually a racist state. The CCP is Han supremacist as ethic minorities in the PRC can attest to. Especially the Uyghur people. But other ethnic minorities, as well.
I'm not saying China is a benevolent actor. They clearly are not, and everything you list about them is true to my knowledge. (And more could be listed, of course, such as their kidnapping of foreign nationals in retaliation for other countries fulfilling their obligations under international extradition treaties. See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detention_of_Michael_Spavor_and_Michael_Kovrig )
The substance of my claim is only that in the realm of international trade, China has proven over the last decade that deals made with them are more likely to be honoured than deals made with the United States, and that means that when other countries, even those in the Global North, are evaluating what trade deals to make, they will prefer China to the United States. That's not a good thing, but it's the conclusion to which USAian voters, in repeatedly electing an ignoramus who does not honour trade (or other) deals, has driven much of the world.
You are naive if you think the two Michaels might not be working for US and/or cCanadian intelligence agencies . On the outside, we have no evidences either way. Notice if you automatically believe one side or the other.
It's entirely possible that they might be working for a US or Canadian intelligence agency. I have no way of knowing that. What I do know is that they were confined in China shortly after Canada met its treaty obligations when the US requested extradition proceedings begin against Meng Wangzhou, and were released shortly after Canada released Ms. Meng upon the US Department of Justice reaching an agreement with her over future proceedings in the matter.
Nonetheless the USAian electoral system twice selected Donald (and very nearly a third time; Biden's aggregate margin of victory across the closest states in 2020 was narrower than Donald's margin in either 2016 or 2024) and it is that reality with which we must deal.
When the data is laid bare on the ‘24 election I’m confident we’ll find that Kamala losing All of 7 swing states by similar margins is Falsifiable. Running Women on a General Election ballot against TRUMP was a Mistake made Twice. Period. Terrible Timing. Still too Soon.
Idealism tempered by Pragmatism wins the future any day!
Sun Tzu: "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."
Yes, China has the opportunity to intervene in the Iran War and strike a devastating blow to the current U.S.-led monopolar world order, but one must realize that in the Confucius-based Chinese society, maintaining order is paramount. It is OK to let the U.S. wound itself and throw Israel to the wolves, but a devastating collapse of the current world economic order would harm long-term Chinese economic plans.
It is to China's advantage for the U.S. to slowly fade into the background rather than to collapse into a destructive freefall with consequences contrary to China's growing economic emergence again as the "Middle Kingdom" of world commerce. Trump is "radioactive" and everything he touches withers and dies.
Notice that China has kept a safe distance from both the Ukraine and the Iranian Wars. China knows from eons of experience that war is a liability, not an asset. The U.S. and Israel will deplete themselves in these "endless wars" and the expensive reparations and rehabilitation efforts to follow. Meanwhile, neutral China is signing trade deals and filling any power vacuum the U.S. leaves behind. A tectonic power shift is occurring, and China is deftly managing the fallout with minimal disruption to its long-range economic plans. Netanyahu wanted a deminishment of Iran, but will have to deal with the loss of its U.S. patron instead.
I don’t believe we will ever see a CCP-led world order. Japan and South Korea are literally preparing for potential war with China as we speak because of their aggression in the South China Sea. Silly Westerners have a very impoverished view of these things.
Yes, there are still territorial conflicts left over from Western imperial days, but there is increasing economic cooperation and trade between China, Japan, and S. Korea as the U.S. becomes destabilized. "Money talks and BS walks."
"China is the largest trading partner for both South Korea and Japan, with 2024–2025 trade volumes totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. Japan-China trade exceeds $300 billion annually, while South Korea-China trade reached roughly 2.33 trillion yuan ($322 billion) in 2024, showing deep economic interdependence despite geopolitical shifts." https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1331269.shtml
Trust me. If China invades Taiwan, Japan is not going to sit on its hands because of "economic ties". People said the same thing about Ukraine and Germany—that Germany would never be willing to accept the economic pain of losing access to Russian oil. Even if the US sat out the war, Japan would be at war with China the moment they attacked Taiwan. And probably South Korea.
I think you might be right about Japan, as they would be put in a very dangerous position by such an act. But why would China take such a risk if they can just buy off Trump. It’s much more likely Taiwan loses by degrees. The opposition party refers to the PRC as ‘the Mainland’ and under a formulation that, ‘ Chinese should never again spill the blood of Chinese’. They will seek to ‘Heal the rift’ with ‘the Mainland’ and if Trump endorses such language ( Can you imagine he would not, flattered and lionized as a great peacemaker while his personal wealth multiplies ten fold?)…. Taiwan would be gradually subsumed realizing that without US support they have no alternative.
China is “invading” Taiwan on “China time”. It will happen, but probably not in our lifetimes. There will not be a military invasion unless the U.S. provokes it. 🧐
The best outcome I hope for is the ‘international rules based order’ survives under European and Canadian leadership and that China at some point realizes that this is in their interest. I hope a chastened US eventually rejoins this order after They also realize it is in their interest. I have no projection for the time span of this at all. We have not yet hit bottom with Trump, who will likely try to sell Taiwan to Xi this week. He has deeper depths of selfishness to plumb yet and it is still in China’s interest to help him do so.
Isn't China's proxy war posture as you frame it similar if not identical to Biden-era's use of the Ukraine war as a proxy cold war posture to degrade Russia until Chump decided to throw our lot to Putin's side? And Chump's treason is simply a day late and a dollar short as most of his failed ventures can attest?
No. Offering aid to Ukraine because it's a democratic country resisting Russian domination is a straight-forward good. I would have given them even more weapons and money than Biden did, if it were me.
Exactly. Isn't the reason Biden and the Pentagon didn't go as far as you and I wanted was to allow Ukraine to act as a proxy to degrade Russia's military and economy by giving it outdated weaponary and restrictions on use not to allow Ukraine to win, but to cause Russia to slowly bleed out which is precisely what has happened. Chump merely showed up with a tourniquet after gangrene had set in. Isn't that what China wants to see happen to the U.S. as the consequence to the latter's own folly and hubris?
Your Universalist commitment is laudable. You need to square that principle with US history though. What exactly is the rationale for the North to make war on the Confederate states trying to secede. If it is based on rebellion against the nation-state. China is making the same claim on Taiwan. I appreciate what Taiwan has achieved, if you goal is for the welfare of the people of Taiwan or China. You should work to encourage negotiations to bring it to a peaceful resolution . That may even open up more possibilities for the mainland Chineses. Analogous to your observation,American politicians have much more encouraged conflict and opposition across the Taiwan straits. This is understandable as a tactic toward a Cold War foe. That seems to be the real motivation to support Taiwan. As to your perception on China, there are certainly things to criticize, you need to actually visit to talk to many people Otherwise you are still much affected by Cold War propaganda that has been filling your mind for decades. As one example, in China, there are platforms and newspapers that publish opinions critical of government policies. There are limits and the latitudes vary at different times. but they do exists.
Very clear and interesting analysis. America is bumbling around like a drunk with Trump at the helm. It has made mistakes in the past, but with Trump, it's embarrassing. He keeps saying China is the enemy, and maybe he's right, but everything he's done has played right into their hands. The disastrous tariffs, the constant indecision about companies like TikTok, accepting massive crypto purchases, hobbling alternative energy and electric vehicles, domestic chaos, and, this war.
Meanwhile the Global North is looking at events and concluding that since USAian voters can't be trusted to have the bare minimum good sense not to elect as head of state and head of government (a blend which is utterly insane and one of the many, many roots of why the US system is so thoroughly fucked up) a lying rapist who betrays nearly every ally his country ever ostensibly had (and further have shown that they can't or won't force their elected representatives to remove him as soon as the betrayals began), while China, for all its multitudinous faults, is at the least good to its word in the trade realm (or at least better than the US has proven itself to be), they'd all rather make deals with China than the country across our southern border. So China wins with both the Global North and the Global South.
I mean, that you would be confused into thinking China is a benevolent actor here because their "economically reliable" is certainly part of the problem I'm observing. This is a regime that regularly disappears dissidents, harvests the organs of criminals against their will, and is actually a racist state. The CCP is Han supremacist as ethic minorities in the PRC can attest to. Especially the Uyghur people. But other ethnic minorities, as well.
I'm not saying China is a benevolent actor. They clearly are not, and everything you list about them is true to my knowledge. (And more could be listed, of course, such as their kidnapping of foreign nationals in retaliation for other countries fulfilling their obligations under international extradition treaties. See, e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detention_of_Michael_Spavor_and_Michael_Kovrig )
The substance of my claim is only that in the realm of international trade, China has proven over the last decade that deals made with them are more likely to be honoured than deals made with the United States, and that means that when other countries, even those in the Global North, are evaluating what trade deals to make, they will prefer China to the United States. That's not a good thing, but it's the conclusion to which USAian voters, in repeatedly electing an ignoramus who does not honour trade (or other) deals, has driven much of the world.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/707945/china-edges-past-global-approval-ratings.aspx
You are naive if you think the two Michaels might not be working for US and/or cCanadian intelligence agencies . On the outside, we have no evidences either way. Notice if you automatically believe one side or the other.
It's entirely possible that they might be working for a US or Canadian intelligence agency. I have no way of knowing that. What I do know is that they were confined in China shortly after Canada met its treaty obligations when the US requested extradition proceedings begin against Meng Wangzhou, and were released shortly after Canada released Ms. Meng upon the US Department of Justice reaching an agreement with her over future proceedings in the matter.
That timing sure as hell looks suspicious.
If it was a mistake, then it was indicative of the failures of the current USAian partisan bargain: https://decivitate.jamesjheaney.com/p/fixing-the-senate-part-iii-your-correspondent/comment/247628217
Nonetheless the USAian electoral system twice selected Donald (and very nearly a third time; Biden's aggregate margin of victory across the closest states in 2020 was narrower than Donald's margin in either 2016 or 2024) and it is that reality with which we must deal.
When the data is laid bare on the ‘24 election I’m confident we’ll find that Kamala losing All of 7 swing states by similar margins is Falsifiable. Running Women on a General Election ballot against TRUMP was a Mistake made Twice. Period. Terrible Timing. Still too Soon.
Idealism tempered by Pragmatism wins the future any day!
https://www.notesfromthecircus.com/p/a-new-cold-war/comment/256818386
Sun Tzu: "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake."
Yes, China has the opportunity to intervene in the Iran War and strike a devastating blow to the current U.S.-led monopolar world order, but one must realize that in the Confucius-based Chinese society, maintaining order is paramount. It is OK to let the U.S. wound itself and throw Israel to the wolves, but a devastating collapse of the current world economic order would harm long-term Chinese economic plans.
It is to China's advantage for the U.S. to slowly fade into the background rather than to collapse into a destructive freefall with consequences contrary to China's growing economic emergence again as the "Middle Kingdom" of world commerce. Trump is "radioactive" and everything he touches withers and dies.
Notice that China has kept a safe distance from both the Ukraine and the Iranian Wars. China knows from eons of experience that war is a liability, not an asset. The U.S. and Israel will deplete themselves in these "endless wars" and the expensive reparations and rehabilitation efforts to follow. Meanwhile, neutral China is signing trade deals and filling any power vacuum the U.S. leaves behind. A tectonic power shift is occurring, and China is deftly managing the fallout with minimal disruption to its long-range economic plans. Netanyahu wanted a deminishment of Iran, but will have to deal with the loss of its U.S. patron instead.
I don’t believe we will ever see a CCP-led world order. Japan and South Korea are literally preparing for potential war with China as we speak because of their aggression in the South China Sea. Silly Westerners have a very impoverished view of these things.
Yes, there are still territorial conflicts left over from Western imperial days, but there is increasing economic cooperation and trade between China, Japan, and S. Korea as the U.S. becomes destabilized. "Money talks and BS walks."
"China is the largest trading partner for both South Korea and Japan, with 2024–2025 trade volumes totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. Japan-China trade exceeds $300 billion annually, while South Korea-China trade reached roughly 2.33 trillion yuan ($322 billion) in 2024, showing deep economic interdependence despite geopolitical shifts." https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1331269.shtml
Trust me. If China invades Taiwan, Japan is not going to sit on its hands because of "economic ties". People said the same thing about Ukraine and Germany—that Germany would never be willing to accept the economic pain of losing access to Russian oil. Even if the US sat out the war, Japan would be at war with China the moment they attacked Taiwan. And probably South Korea.
I think you might be right about Japan, as they would be put in a very dangerous position by such an act. But why would China take such a risk if they can just buy off Trump. It’s much more likely Taiwan loses by degrees. The opposition party refers to the PRC as ‘the Mainland’ and under a formulation that, ‘ Chinese should never again spill the blood of Chinese’. They will seek to ‘Heal the rift’ with ‘the Mainland’ and if Trump endorses such language ( Can you imagine he would not, flattered and lionized as a great peacemaker while his personal wealth multiplies ten fold?)…. Taiwan would be gradually subsumed realizing that without US support they have no alternative.
China is “invading” Taiwan on “China time”. It will happen, but probably not in our lifetimes. There will not be a military invasion unless the U.S. provokes it. 🧐
The best outcome I hope for is the ‘international rules based order’ survives under European and Canadian leadership and that China at some point realizes that this is in their interest. I hope a chastened US eventually rejoins this order after They also realize it is in their interest. I have no projection for the time span of this at all. We have not yet hit bottom with Trump, who will likely try to sell Taiwan to Xi this week. He has deeper depths of selfishness to plumb yet and it is still in China’s interest to help him do so.
Isn't China's proxy war posture as you frame it similar if not identical to Biden-era's use of the Ukraine war as a proxy cold war posture to degrade Russia until Chump decided to throw our lot to Putin's side? And Chump's treason is simply a day late and a dollar short as most of his failed ventures can attest?
No. Offering aid to Ukraine because it's a democratic country resisting Russian domination is a straight-forward good. I would have given them even more weapons and money than Biden did, if it were me.
Exactly. Isn't the reason Biden and the Pentagon didn't go as far as you and I wanted was to allow Ukraine to act as a proxy to degrade Russia's military and economy by giving it outdated weaponary and restrictions on use not to allow Ukraine to win, but to cause Russia to slowly bleed out which is precisely what has happened. Chump merely showed up with a tourniquet after gangrene had set in. Isn't that what China wants to see happen to the U.S. as the consequence to the latter's own folly and hubris?
The Chinese government is aggressive towards the neighbours of China but the Pacific democracies shouldn't rely on American assistance.
https://hanschristensen.substack.com/p/japan-could-imagine-an-asian-nato
https://roguesystemsrecon.substack.com/p/deterring-china-without-the-usa
A complex and far-reaching speculation. What outcome would validate it?
And when is trumpty going to China again?
Wonder what they’ll talk about…
And don't forget Mohanned Ali's rope-a-dope.
This sounds like a boxer who knows his opponent and is absorbing blows because he knows his opponent will soon punch himself out.
It is a pleasure to read your essays. Thank you.
Your Universalist commitment is laudable. You need to square that principle with US history though. What exactly is the rationale for the North to make war on the Confederate states trying to secede. If it is based on rebellion against the nation-state. China is making the same claim on Taiwan. I appreciate what Taiwan has achieved, if you goal is for the welfare of the people of Taiwan or China. You should work to encourage negotiations to bring it to a peaceful resolution . That may even open up more possibilities for the mainland Chineses. Analogous to your observation,American politicians have much more encouraged conflict and opposition across the Taiwan straits. This is understandable as a tactic toward a Cold War foe. That seems to be the real motivation to support Taiwan. As to your perception on China, there are certainly things to criticize, you need to actually visit to talk to many people Otherwise you are still much affected by Cold War propaganda that has been filling your mind for decades. As one example, in China, there are platforms and newspapers that publish opinions critical of government policies. There are limits and the latitudes vary at different times. but they do exists.
A number of uncertain premises in your argument.
Very clear and interesting analysis. America is bumbling around like a drunk with Trump at the helm. It has made mistakes in the past, but with Trump, it's embarrassing. He keeps saying China is the enemy, and maybe he's right, but everything he's done has played right into their hands. The disastrous tariffs, the constant indecision about companies like TikTok, accepting massive crypto purchases, hobbling alternative energy and electric vehicles, domestic chaos, and, this war.
China, China, China…?
Neither Russia or China are primarily responsible for our current predicament. But they've been more than happy to help things along when they could.
Yes.
If nations were individuals and the UN was mandatory group therapy sessions the U.S. would be like, “Where’s my Secret Service?!”.
Meta-question: is it legitimate to reframe arguments as "observations"?