Great writeup. It appears 2 US warships transited the Strait today, AND Iranian assets held in Qatari banks were unfrozen by the UST. Tollbooth formalization as you predicted
"The table in Islamabad is where the gap is being negotiated."
I completely agree with your assessment - but the biggest thing I notice is that We the People of the United States - or of Iran, or of any of the world - do not have a seat at this table, nor representation of any kind in these negotiations. On one side, you have a powerful, entrenched theocracy; on the other side, you have Iran. And sitting between them are the world's billionaire capitalists, ensuring that whatever is negotiated supports their best interests.
Does Trump want the negotiations to succeed? The reports of the limitations of the damage Trump can do seem exaggerated to me. This is the 1st ranked military against the 16th, a ratio for airpower that is much higher; a military run by a fascist. Is it likely Trump will worry about war crimes? Perhaps Trump wants to flatten Iran’s infrastructure to make a false flag attack on America appear credible? A crude nuclear device, 1960s technology, HEU implosion type, plans for such obtained by Iran from Pakistan by AQ Khan, assembled in Putin’s Russia, smuggled into America, exploded in a major city on 7/4 with a pre positioned trail of evidence linking the bomb to Iran. The advantage, a surge of ethno-nationalism greater than 9/11, an excuse to create a Security Army, elections in November rigged and won, an ex post facto excuse for the attacks on Iran. This is of course hypothetical, although Putin (1999 Apartment Bombings) and Hitler (1933 Reichstag Fire) very probably did the same things on a smaller scale.
Yes, people should speak of the Trump regime, the "creature" and his inner circle of advisers and allies. Trump was hired by the morbidly rich to prevent democracy creating overdue economic reform.This is conditional on his following strategic advice. I cannot see that the 60 year old Conservative Movement, which is on the edge of destroying American democracy, is going to allow mere voters to stop them now that they have so much more to protect. Ethno-nationalism which MAGA has exploited and amplified has been shown to increase as a result of inequality and security threats. Trump essentially offered to rig the economic system in favor of his supporters, and has not done so. This leaves a terrorist attack orders of magnitude larger than 9/11, which unlike the former would provide a rationale for a large regime security force, on the scale of 500k (ICE is 20k) which could then be redirected to create dictatorship by rigging elections to prevent so called non-Americans from voting, although there is zero evidence for this as Trump knows.
Great writeup. It appears 2 US warships transited the Strait today, AND Iranian assets held in Qatari banks were unfrozen by the UST. Tollbooth formalization as you predicted
“…to the last I grapple with thee; from hell's heart I stab at thee; for hate's sake I spit my last breath at thee.” My bet’s on the whale.
"The table in Islamabad is where the gap is being negotiated."
I completely agree with your assessment - but the biggest thing I notice is that We the People of the United States - or of Iran, or of any of the world - do not have a seat at this table, nor representation of any kind in these negotiations. On one side, you have a powerful, entrenched theocracy; on the other side, you have Iran. And sitting between them are the world's billionaire capitalists, ensuring that whatever is negotiated supports their best interests.
Let us hope!
Does Trump want the negotiations to succeed? The reports of the limitations of the damage Trump can do seem exaggerated to me. This is the 1st ranked military against the 16th, a ratio for airpower that is much higher; a military run by a fascist. Is it likely Trump will worry about war crimes? Perhaps Trump wants to flatten Iran’s infrastructure to make a false flag attack on America appear credible? A crude nuclear device, 1960s technology, HEU implosion type, plans for such obtained by Iran from Pakistan by AQ Khan, assembled in Putin’s Russia, smuggled into America, exploded in a major city on 7/4 with a pre positioned trail of evidence linking the bomb to Iran. The advantage, a surge of ethno-nationalism greater than 9/11, an excuse to create a Security Army, elections in November rigged and won, an ex post facto excuse for the attacks on Iran. This is of course hypothetical, although Putin (1999 Apartment Bombings) and Hitler (1933 Reichstag Fire) very probably did the same things on a smaller scale.
Donald Trump does not think in strategic terms, contrary to the charity people otherwise seem to want to afford him on this point.
Yes, people should speak of the Trump regime, the "creature" and his inner circle of advisers and allies. Trump was hired by the morbidly rich to prevent democracy creating overdue economic reform.This is conditional on his following strategic advice. I cannot see that the 60 year old Conservative Movement, which is on the edge of destroying American democracy, is going to allow mere voters to stop them now that they have so much more to protect. Ethno-nationalism which MAGA has exploited and amplified has been shown to increase as a result of inequality and security threats. Trump essentially offered to rig the economic system in favor of his supporters, and has not done so. This leaves a terrorist attack orders of magnitude larger than 9/11, which unlike the former would provide a rationale for a large regime security force, on the scale of 500k (ICE is 20k) which could then be redirected to create dictatorship by rigging elections to prevent so called non-Americans from voting, although there is zero evidence for this as Trump knows.